The question still remains how and when will European mobile operators recoup the billions spent on 3G licenses? In a recently released study by MMXI Jupiter Communications, analysts predict that revenues from next generation services will be less substantial than operators had anticipated. Among Western European networks, the total value of advertising, shopping, and interactive services delivered over mobile phones will climb from $116–million in 2001 to barely $8.1-billion in 2005.

• Goods bought over mobile devices will amount to $3.8-billion, compared with the estimated $64-billion that will be spent over PCs
• Total revenues generated by mobile phone subscribers in 2005 will be slightly over $124-billion, with the majority coming from voice services
• Technical problems will hamper the full potential of advertising, shopping, and other services to generate revenues until 2003
• Total revenues will not exceed $1-billion until 2003, quite small when divided among all players
• The number of interactive handsets will reach 300 million in Europe by the end of 2005, with 191 million ‘active’ interactive subscribers

With Vodafone, Orange, BT Cellnet, One 2 One, and Hutchison having spent £22.5 billion on 3G licenses in the U.K. and now find themselves debt laden, they were looking to NTT DoCoMo for leadership in 3G technology and marketing of services. But now with the Japanese telecom overnight announcing a four-month delay of its 3G service, Jupiter’s report, perhaps will offer a more balanced perspective versus the media hype surrounding the anticipation of the next generation of services.