European Industry Opinion - Wait for 3G Future to Unfold
NICE, France -- Third-generation (3G) mobile phones will be a
great success but not for several years and it is impossible to
predict which applications will be popular, according to delegates
at this week's 3G conference in Nice, France.
Cumulative global revenues from 3G will may reach €1 trillion ($855.9
billion) by 2010, compared with expected investment of €700
billion ($599.1 billion) in 3G networks, according to Paola Tonelli
of Vodafone.
Source: Mbizcentral
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Mobileinfo Comments and Advisory: We agree with basic
conclusion that it will take much longer to reach the revenue
streams that 3G investment required to make it successful. We always
stated that it will be slow and steady to start with and then it
will take off after 2005. But investment community was not ready for
longer payback period. There area a lot of certainties in terms of
killer applications.
Mass adoption of new consumer applications is always hard to
predict. Therefore, pragmatic expectations are better than the hype
that has been created. Many of the infrastructure vendors are hoping
that somehow young teenagers are going to create a trillion dollar
mobile industry in 2010. We are playing with numbers and words like
cumulative. If you count everything for ten years, may be!. Should
operators change their implementation plans? We say, no - just
adjust your financial plans. You are building for the future.
