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News
Issue #2002 - 07
(February 2002)
(Updated Feb.
20, 2002)
MARKET
OUTLOOK & TRENDS
Mobile Subscriber Growth to fall
by 2005, study says
As wireless operators roll
out 3G services, subscriber growth will plummet to almost zero in
most developed countries by 2005, according to U.K. research firm
Baskerville, a division of Informa Telecoms Group.
"Even under-penetrated countries such as Argentina, Hungary
and the U.S. growth will slump by 2005/6, just as 3G services start
to roll out," says Georgina Hooper, analysis with Baskerville.
"Only a few countries, like China and India look set to buck
this trend."
Within the next nine years, American operators can only expect
minimal subscriber growth, from 125.6 million in 2001 to 226.8 in
2010, while Chinese carriers can hope for exponential growth, from
133.9 million in 2001 to 575.1 million in 2010.
Despite slowing subscriber growth, Baskerville is confident that
revenues will increase due to the adoption of new data services and
next generation networks. For example, operator revenues from mobile
are predicted to triple in the U.S. within five years: $23.5-billion
in 2005 to $72.8-billion in 2010.
In its report, ‘Globe Mobile Forecasts to 2010,’ Baskerville
provides nine-year forecasts for country and regional subscriber
numbers, penetration, ARPUs as well as voice and data revenues.
For more information: http://www.baskerville.com
Mobileinfo Comments & Advisory: This
report should not be big news to seasoned analysts if you compare it
with auto industry. There are only finite number of drivers and
subscribers. The end objective of auto manufacturers is not to find a
new driver but to sell a better, more expensive new car to those who
know how to drive. Therefore, network providers should not depend
solely on more subscribers but somehow give them something compelling
that they use the network more.
Note: This news release may contain
forward-looking statements. Readers should take appropriate caution in
developing plans utilizing these products, services and technology
architectures. All trademarks used in this summary are
the property of their respective owners.
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