News
Issue #2002 - 40 (October 2002)
(Updated Oct. 22, 2002)

OPINIONS

Accelerating Enterprise Wireless Market - says In-Stat/MDR 

A report this week by In-Stat/MDR, a leading technology market research firm, forecasts a 17.6-percent compound annual growth rate for the PDA market between 2001 and 2006. While that's not the explosive growth some have envisioned for these devices, it is enough to garner our attention--and probably yours, as well.

In-Stat estimates that about 10 percent of the U.S. workforce currently uses some form of handheld computing device for business-related activities. In many cases, employees buy these devices on their own, usually because they are either attracted to new technologies or compulsive about being organized--or maybe both. Although 10 percent of the workforce is a fairly large number, there's obviously significant opportunity for market growth.

While we've been talking about the eventual adoption of these devices as portable application platforms, several key elements in this equation have yet to come together. Here's our list of the seven biggest obstacles to enterprise PDA growth.

Ease of Use: While PDA performance has improved dramatically in recent years, these devices are still difficult to use. Some of the problems are a natural extension of increased power and functionality. But the majority is related to interface design issues and the inherent difficulties associated with balancing portability and screen size. Displays, too, are improving, but in an era when notebooks sport 15-inch displays and 1024x768 resolution, PDAs with 4-inch screens and a resolution of 320x240 pixels are still pretty primitive. Web application developers some day will consider the display characteristics of PDAs when designing systems, but few do so today.

Wireless Connectivity:. We've liked much of what we've seen in the smartphone space, where companies are morphing the PDA into a functional communication device. The increased availability of 2.5G cellular systems opens the door to a range of new applications that require more than the 9600-bps data rates that shackled 2G systems. Progress also has been made in providing wireless LAN capabilities to PDAs. But the level of integration is still rather crude, which makes these devices better suited to a minority of techno-hipsters who are willing to invest lots of time in making them work.

Battery Life: Cell phone designers have set the bar for battery-life expectations on mobile devices. Even today's unconnected PDAs can't come close to meeting those standards. Add wireless capabilities, and
the picture is even more bleak. PDA battery problems are understandable to a certain degree, given their more powerful CPUs and larger displays. But it doesn't really matter much if there are valid technical explanations for the limitations; expectations drive the customer satisfaction equation and, today, it's tough to find many active PDA users who are happy with battery life.

Device Management: Most of us have this rather simple view of the relationship between a PDA and other systems. You place your PDA in its cradle and it auto-magically synchronizes the appropriate information. Sure, that may work OK for basic calendaring and contact databases, but this model is full of holes. Data synchronization is one of the most challenging application technologies out there, and
while a number of companies have invested lots of resources in making this work, the market still has a long path to maturity.

Cost: If you look at the engineering behind the manufacturing of a state-of-the-art PDA, some would argue that getting one of these miracles of miniaturization for $500 is a bargain. All experienced IT professionals, however, understand that purchase price is only the tip of the iceberg. Gartner, for example, estimates that the true annual cost of ownership for a business-oriented PDA is over $3,000 and that it increases to more than $4,000 when wireless capabilities are added. You'd better be deriving some pretty significant cost-savings to justify such fees.

Security: Everyone is fixated by security concerns today and, unfortunately, exaggerated security concerns are often used to kill off innovative IT initiatives. But when it comes to PDAs, those concerns are thoroughly justified. Device manufacturers and operating system developers are only beginning to address legitimate security concerns. And because many mobile computing applications need to be designed with disconnected operation in mind (either because constant wireless connectivity is not available or it's too expensive), you can have some pretty significant exposure when a device gets lost or stolen.

Organizational Politics: Many IT managers struggle for centralized control of technology on a daily basis. Look at wireless LANs. With rogue access points popping up fast in offices and departments, it can be frustrating to implement any kind of coordinated management. It's even worse for PDAs, which are inherently personal devices. In fact, it's so bad that many IT managers I talk to want nothing at all to do
with it. They'd rather focus their attention on problems they have half a chance of solving.

For more information: http://www.instat/com 

MobileInfo Comments and Advisory: In-stat seems to have reached sound conclusions that we agree with based on our own assessment of what IT professionals and users tell us on not-so-scientific survey.

Note: This news release may contain forward-looking statements. Readers should take appropriate caution in developing plans utilizing these products, services and technology architectures.  All trademarks used in this summary are the property of their respective owners.