News
Issue #2003 - 09 (March 2003)
(Updated Mar. 19, 2003)

MARKET OUTLOOK & TRENDS

US Market Passes 50% Penetration With CDMA Continuing To Dominate

Source: EMC 

The US wireless market had grown to 141.4 million subscribers to the end of December 2002 passing the 50% penetration milestone, according to the latest figures from EMC.

Mike Woolfrey, Research Manager, EMC added that "While the US has often been perceived as being behind other mature markets, it is the second largest domestic market in the world, only China has more cellular users".

To view a graph showing US Subscriber History 1996 - 2002, please use the link below:
http://www.emc-database.com/website.nsf/index/pr030314#this-page

Growth slowed in 2002 with 12 million net additions compared to 17 million in 2001. With the market slowing, carriers are looking to target under-penetrated sectors of the market that in European markets has come from prepaid offerings. US carriers are conscious of the trade-off of increased market share against lower revenue gains from the prepaid sector which currently only accounts for less than 10% of all US users. European experience confirms lower revenue potential from prepaid users, but EMC reiterates that there is still profit in prepaid.

CDMA is the leading technology choice in the US market accounting for 43% of all users. However this position could be challenged by the emergence of new GSM service from existing TDMA operators. GSM currently accounts for 11% of the market, up from 6% in 1999. EMC forecasts that GSM will account
for 33% of all US users in 2007, with CDMA continuing to dominate with a forecasted market share of 44% in 2007.

Source: http://www.emc-database.com/website.nsf/index/pr030314#this-page

MobileInfo Comments and Advisory: China may have more subscribers than USA but usage (ARPU) is lower. We need both - CDMA and GSM/GPRS. Let competition prevail. This will get the best out of Qualcomm as well. 

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