Reports Puts the Future of Wireless Use In Perspective

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NEWS
Issue #2001 - 10 (Mar. 2001)
(Updated on Mar. 7, 2001)

MARKET OUTLOOK

Reports Puts the Future of Wireless Use In Perspective

Every week a hand-full of reports, studies, and surveys are released, all attempting to predict the future of some segment of the wireless industry. However, there is one research firm that is calling these published papers into question. eMarketers of New York has released its report, ‘The eWireless Report,’ that cites data and examples from more than 100 research organizations and consultancies, concludes that their projections are so discrepant it is ‘virtually impossible’ to compose an accurate picture of the future of wireless.

Commenting on the methodology of some research firms, Paul Mulligan, wireless analyst for eMarketer, said, "Researchers are pulling their numbers out of thin air based on hot air . . . We have researchers projecting usage numbers for things that don’t even exist yet – like 3G services. They might as well be telling us how many people will drive wheel-less cars in 2007."

Findings
Comparative estimates for wireless Internet usage in the U.S. for 2004 vary widely.

The Strategies Group foresees 17 million users.
IDC predicts 40 million wireless Internet users.
Merrill Lynch has enthusiastically projected 161 million.

Estimates on the total value of wireless advertising spending in the U.S. by 2005 are also far reaching.

Yankee Group predicts $6,110 million.
Ovum forecasts $4,218 million
Forrester Research predicts $880 million.

Projections for use of m-financial services worldwide by 2004 also vary.

Celenet Communications predicts that 150 million people will use global wireless financial services.
ARC Group forecasts that wireless-banking users will grow to 331 million by 2004.

In its 241-page report, eMarketer surveys every major region, covering the technology infrastructure, user population, m-commerce, m-finance, and advertising. The report also includes numerous charts and graphs as well as aggregated research data from more than 100 research organizations and consultancies.

For more information: http://www.emarketer.com/about_us/press_room/press_releases/20010228_wireless.html

Mobileinfo Comments and Advisory: We are glad to see somebody to call into question these forecasts floating around. We have always stated that methodology adopted by many research organizations is faulty. Many reports are self-serving. We believe that these forecasts indicate general trends and not point information. Major problem is that these reports are based on surveys, asking respondents to make projections without knowing how much will it cost and what the exact benefits will be. More importantly, they assume inelastic supply of IT budgets. We all know that is not true. We do know that wireless computing market is going to be big. We won't say how big.

Note: This news release may contain forward-looking statements. Readers should take appropriate caution in developing plans utilizing these products, services and technology architectures.

All trademarks used in this summary are the property of their respective owners.

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